Using the Findings

We make no prescription here as to how the findings from use of the model we have developed, or that you might develop, can lead to policies, strategies and action plans. As mentioned at the start of this microsite, the model reflects only the science of the carbon cycle, population growth, energy systems and land use. It is NOT a policy model because it does not contain within it specific mechanisms or instruments for implementing policy. It simply displays the impact on atmospheric carbon IF the world could find a way to place any of the terms in the model onto a trajectory one simulates.

For example, the model can be used to determine the impact on atmospheric carbon of a change in the fractional rate of reduction in per capita energy use in the developed and/or underdeveloped world, or the rate of population growth in either world, or a change in land use globally. The model can say nothing about HOW such trajectories might be achieved (carbon taxes, regulation, etc). That is a separate kind of modelling and discussion. However, you might want to consider whether a particular change in any one term of the model might also change other terms in the model, and include this correlation in building your own model or simulations. For example, as population grows, there will be increasing prerssure to reduce the amount of forested land, converting this to cropland. The model will not perform this calculation automatically. You must simulate both changes (population and shift of land use) simultaneously in any model runs.

Finally, we feel compelled to make the following statement. When you run the model, you will find that remaining below a doubling of the pre-industrial revolution levels of atmospheric carbon cannot be obtained by a focus solely on reducing emissions in the developed world. Even if that world were to decarbonise completely and immediately, if the underdeveloped world stays on its current trajectory, we will see a doubling of atmospheric carbon well within the 21st century. All scientific communities - whether in developed or underdeveloped nations - agree on this point.

This does not, however, imply that a focus on reducing emissions dramatically in the developed world isn't needed. As we said at the beginning of this microsite:

The only politically, economically and ethically sound approach to decarbonising the underdeveloped world while allowing for sustainable economic growth in those nations involves the developed world decarbonising, which in turn will stimulate innovations in low carbon technologies and reduce costs of these technologies, making it in turn economically feasible for the underdeveloped nations to adopt those technologies in driving down their own trajectories of emissions. This process of transfer will require financial and technical support from the developed nations that have already made their fortunes through high carbon economies.

Using the Findings

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