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Peer-Reviewed Publications

A reverse chronological listing of publications from 4CMR
Thoung, C., Beaven, R., Zuo C., Birkin, M., Tyler, P., Crawford-Brown, D., Oughton, E. and Kelly, S. (2016) Future Demands for Infrastructure Services, in The Future of National Infrastructure: A System-of-Systems Approach, ed. by J. Hall, M. Tran, A. Hickford and R. Nicholls, Cambridge University Press.
Jano-Ito, M. and Crawford-Brown, D. (2015) Socio-technical analysis of the electricity sector of Mexico: Its historical evolution and implications for a transition towards low-carbon development, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 55, 567-590. 
Zhu Liu, Dabo Guan, Wei Wei, Steven J. Davis, Philippe Ciais, Jin Bai, Shushi Peng, Qiang Zhang, Klaus Hubacek, Gregg Marland, Robert J. Andres, Douglas Crawford-Brown, Jintai Lin, Hongyan Zhao, Chaopeng Hong, Thomas A. Boden, Kuishuang Feng, Glen P. Peters, Fengming Xi, Junguo Liu, Yuan Li, Yu Zhao, Ning Zeng & Kebin He (2015) "Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China", Nature, 524, 335, doi:10.1038/nature14677
Mercure, J-F. and Lam, A. (2015) "The effectiveness of policy on consumer choices for private road passenger transport emissions reductions in six major economies", Environmental Research Letters, 10, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064008.
Barker, T., Alexandri, E., Mercure, J-F., Ogawa, Y. and Pollitt, H. (2015) 
"GDP and Employment Effects of Policies to Close the 2020 Emissions Gap", Climate Policy, DOI:10.1080/14693062.2014.1003774
Crawford-Brown, D. (2015) "Analysis of the Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation" in Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, Springer Press, doi: 10.1007/978-1-4614-6431-0_59-1

Crawford-Brown, D. and Gosse, J-B (2015) "Collective Finance Models for Sustainable Water Projects", Journal of Environmental Protection, 6, 477-493.

Kelly, S., Tyler, P. and Crawford-Brown, D. (2015) "Exploring Vulnerability and Interdependency of UK Infrastructure using Key-linkage Analysis", Networks and Spatial Economics.

Crawford-Brown, D. (2015) "Regulatory Implications of Cumulative Risk
for Perchlorate as an Iodide Uptake Inhibitor", Journal of Environmental Protection, 6, 726-734. 

Chapman, S., Wilder, M., Millar, I., Dibley, A., Yeang, D., Heffernan, J., Sherchan, K., Maguire, R., Wamjiku Kago, C., Kamunde-Aquino, N., Kiguatha, L., Nana Afua Idun, Y., Doshi, M., Engbring, G. and Dooley, E. (2015) "A Legal Perspective of Carbon Rights and Benefit Sharing under REDD+: A Conceptual Framework and Examples from Cambodia and Kenya", Carbon and Climate Law Review

Barker, T. and Crawford-Brown, D., editors (2015) Decarbonising the Global Economy, Imperial College Press (with chapters by the staff of 4CMR)

Crawford-Brown, D. (2015) "Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Establishing Perchlorate and Goitrogen Risk Mitigation Strategies", International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12, 10374-10390.
de Carvalho Morais, Z., Crawford-Brown, D. and Cabero Dieguez, V. (2015) Sustainability Assessment and Governance Challenges in Development of Environmental Protection Areas, Chapter 16 in Territoris em Risco, Editora UFPA, 307-327.  
Shih, H-C, Crawford-Brown, D. and Ma, H-W. (2014) "The Influence of Spatial Resolution on Human Health Risk Co-benefit Estimates for Global Climate Policy Assessments", Journal of Environmental Management. Available at
Jano-Ito, J., Reed, G. and Millan, M. (2014) "Comparison of Thermodynamic Equilibrium Predictions on Trace Element Speciation in Oxy-Fuel and Conventional Coal Combustion Power Plants", Energy Fuels, 28, 4666-4683.
Chen, P-C, Crawford-Brown, D., Chang, C-H. and Ma, H-w., "Identifying the Drivers of Environmental Risk through a Model Integrating Substance Flow and Input–output Analysis", Ecological Economics, 107, 94-103, 2014.
Mercure,J.-F., Pollitt H. , Chewpreecha, U., Salas, P., Foley, A.M., Holden P.B and Edwards, N.R. (2014) "The Dynamics of Technology Diffusion and the Impacts of Climate Policy Instruments in the Decarbonisation of the Global Electricity Sector.  Energy Policy, 73, 686-700,
Chapman, S., Wilder, M. and Millar, I. (2014) “Defining the Legal Elements of Benefit Sharing in the Context of REDD+” Carbon and Climate Law Review, 4, 269-280.
Altimiras-Martin, A. (2014) "Analysing the Structure of the Economy using

Physical Input-output Tables", Economic Systems Research, doi: 10.1080/09535314.2014.950637.

Sai Liang, Zhu Liu, Crawford-Brown, D., Yafei Wang and Ming Xu (2014)  "Decoupling Analysis and Socioeconomic Drivers of Environmental Pressure in China", Environmental Science and Technology, 48, 1103–1113.

Foley, A. M., Willeit, M., Brovkin, V., Feulner, G., and Friend, A. D. (2014) "Quantifying the Global Carbon Cycle Response to Volcanic Stratospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing using Earth System Models", Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 119, doi:10.1002/2013JD019724.

Foley, A. M., Dalmonech, D., Friend, A. D., Aires, F., Archibald, A. T., Bartlein, P., Bopp, L., Chappellaz, J., Cox, P., Edwards, N. R., Feulner, G., Friedlingstein, P., Harrison, S. P., Hopcroft, P. O., Jones, C. D., Kolassa, J., Levine, J. G., Prentice, I. C., Pyle, J., Vázquez Riveiros, N., Wolff, E. W., and Zaehle, S. (2013), "Evaluation of Biospheric Components in Earth system Models using Modern and Palaeo Observations: the State-of-the-Art", Biogeosciences, 10, 8305-8328, doi:10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013.
Crawford-Brown, D. (2014) “Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Risk Reduction”, Sustainability and Disaster Risk Management, 1, 9-14.
Crawford-Brown, D., "The Moral Landscape of Decisions in Sustainability and Climate Change", in Living Lightly, Living Faithfully, ed by C. Bell, J. Chaplin and R. White, The Faraday Institute for Science and Religion, Cambridge, pp. 211-220, 2013.
Mercure, J-F. and Salas, P. "On the Global Economic Potentials and Marginal Costs of Non-renewable Resources and the Price of Energy Commodities", Energy Policy, 63 469-483, Open Access: 
Skelton, A., "EU Corporate Action as a Driver for Emissions Abatement: A Structural Analysis of EU International Supply Chain Carbon Dioxide Emissions", Global Environmental Change, 23, 1795–1806, 2013.
Foley, A., Fealy, R. and Sweeney, J., "Model Skill Measures in Probabilistic Regional Climate Projections for Ireland", Climate Research, 56, 33-49, 2013.
Barker, T. and Crawford-Brown, D., "Are Estimated Costs of Stringent Mitigation Biased?", Climatic Change, 121, 129-138, 2013.
Chapman, S. and Wilder, M., "Fostering REDD+ Investment through Legal Frameworks: Lessons from the Development of Early Forest Carbon Projects", Carbon and Climate Law Review, 1, 43-53, 2013.
Crawford-Brown, D., Chen, P-C., Shih, H-C. and Chao, C-W., "Linking Climate Change Co-benefits Risk Reduction and Macroeconomic Modelling", Journal of Environmental Management, 125, 1-6, 2013.
Crawford-Brown, D., "The Role of Advanced Biological Data in the Rationality of Risk-based Regulatory Decisions", Journal of Environmental Protection, 4, 3, 238-249, 2013.

Crawford-Brown, D., Syddall, M., Guan, D., Hall, J, Jun Li, Jenkins, K. and Beaven, R., " Vulnerability of London’s Economy to Climate Change: Sensitivity to Production Loss", Journal of Environmental Protection, 4, 548-563, 2013.

Jun Li, Crawford-Brown, D., Syddall, M. and Guan, D., "Modeling Imbalanced Economic Recovery Following a Natural Disaster Using Input–output Analysis", Risk Analysis, 33, 1908-1923, 2013.

Z. Liu, D. Guan, D. Crawford-Brown, Q. Zhang, K. He and J. Liu, “A Low-Carbon Road Map for China”, Nature,500, 143-146, 2013

Mercure J.-F. and Salas P., An Assessment of Global Energy Resource Economic Potentials, Energy, 46, 322-336, 2012. Free text available on ArXiV arXiv:1205.4693v2

Kelly, S., Shipworth, M., Shipworth, D., Gentry, M., Wright, A., Pollit, M., Crawford-Brown, D. and Lomas, K., "Predicting the Diversity of Internal Temperatures from the English Residential Sector using Panel Methods", Applied Energy, 102, 601-621, 2012.
Huang, Y. and Barker, T., The Clean Development Mechanism and Low Carbon Development: A Panel Data Analysis", Energy Economics, 34, 1033-1040, 2012.
Gudmundsson, S. V. and Anger, A., "Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios for Aviation Derived from IPCC Storylines: A Meta-analysis", Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 17(1), 61-65, 2012. 
Crawford-Brown, D., Barker, T., Anger, A. and Dessins, O., “Ozone and PM Related Health Co-benefits of Climate Change Policies in Mexico", Environmental Science and Policy, 17, 33-40, 2012.
Crawford-Brown, D. and Crawford-Brown, S., "Cumulative Risk Assessment Framework for Waterborne Contaminants", Journal of Environmental Protection, 3, 5, 400-413, 2012.
Barker, T., "Climate Policy: Issues and Opportunities for Rapidly Industrializing Countries", Chapter 2, pp. 19-37 in H. Compston and I. Bailey (Eds), Feeling the Heat: the Politics of Climate Policy in Rapidly Developing Countries, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2012.

Barker, T., Anger, A., Chewpreecha, U. and Pollitt, H., "A New Economics Approach to Modelling Policies to Achieve Global 2020 Targets for Climate Stabilisation", Special Issue on Economic Policies of the New Thinking in Economics, International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 26, No. 2, pp. 205-211, 2012.
Guan, D., Zhu, L., Yong, G., Lindner, S., Hubacek K., "The Gigatonne Gap in China's Carbon Dioxide Inventories", 10 June, 2012. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate1560.
Mercure J.-F., FTT:Power : A global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion, Energy Policy 48, 799-811, 2012. Free text available on ArXiv arXiv:1205.4868 
Kelly, S., Crawford-Brown, D. and Pollitt, M. “Building Performance Evaluation and Certification in the UK: is SAP fit for Purpose?”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16, 9, 6861-6878, 2012.
Liu Z, Geng Y, Lindner S, Guan D. "Uncovering China’s Greenhouse Gas Emission from Regional and Sectoral Perspectives", Energy, 2012. (

Liu Z, Geng Y, Lindner S, Zhao H, Fujita T, Guan D. "Embodied Energy Consumption in Chinese Industries", Energy Policy, 2012. (

Crawford-Brown, D., “Assessing the Sensitivity of Climate Change Targets to Policies of Land Use, Energy Demand, Low Carbon Energy and Population Growth”, Journal of Environmental Protection, 3, 12, 1615-1624, 2012.

Klinsky, S., "Bottom-up Policy Lessons Emerging from the Western Climate Initiative's Development Challenges", Climate Policy, 2012. 

Klinsky, S., Dowlatabadi, H., McDaniels, T.  "Comparing public rationales for justice trade-offs in mitigation and adaptation climate policy dilemmas". Global Environmental Change, accepted with revisions, 2011.

Vignola, R., Klinsky, S., Tam, J and McDaniels, T. "Public perception, knowledge and policy support for mitigation and adaption to Climate Change in Costa Rica: Comparisons with North American and European Experiences". Forthcoming. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, 2011.



Skelton, A., Guan, D., Peters, G. and Crawford-Brown, D., “Mapping Flows of Embodied Emissions in the Global Production System”, Environmental Science and Technology, 45, 10516-10523, 2011.

Crawford-Brown, D. and S. Crawford-Brown, “The Precautionary Principle in Environmental Regulations for Drinking Water“, Environmental Science and Policy, 2011.

Crawford-Brown, D., “Sustainable Development”, Handbook of Sustainability Management, ed by C. Madu and C. Kuei, Imperial College Press, London, 2011.

Crawford-Brown, D., “Sources, Risks and Mitigation of Radioactivity in Water”, in Treatise on Water Science, Oxford Academic Press, 59-67, 2011.

Crawford-Brown, D., Pakianathan, L. and Osborne, N., “Climate Change Adaptation and Underground Rail Transit Systems”, Journeys, 2011.
Heffron, R. and Haynes, P. "Improving Urban Regeneration in the UK: Lessons from the Developing World", Journal of Urban Regeneration and Renewal 5(1) 65-74, 2011.

Haynes, P. "Conceptualising Networks as Assemblages: Examples from the Spanish Ceramics Sector", Revista Internacional de Sociología 69(2) 417-437, 2011.


Guan D. and K. Hubacek, “China Can Offer Domestic Emission Cap-and-Trade in Post 2012”, Environmental Science & Technology, 2010.

Huang, Y., “Political Institutions and Financial Development: An Empirical Study”, World Development, 2010.

Huang, Y., “Private Investment and Financial Development in a Globalized World”, Empirical Economics, special issue on "New Perspectives on Finance and Development", 2010.

Barker, T and S Scrieciu, “Modeling Low Stabilization with E3MG: Towards a New Economics approach to Simulating Energy-Environment-Economy System Dynamics”, Energy Journal Special Issue on “The Economics of Low Stabilisation”, January 2010.

Barker, T, A. Anger, O. Dessens, H. Pollitt, H. Rogers, S. Scrieciu, R. Jones and J. Pyle, “Integrated Modelling of Climate Control and Air Pollution: Methodology and Results from One-way Coupling of an Energy-Environment-Economy (E3MG) and Atmospheric Chemistry Model (p-TOMCAT) in Decarbonising Scenarios for Mexico to 2050”, Environmental Science and Policy, 2010.

Anger, A. and J. Köhler “Including Aviation Emissions in the EU ETS: Much Ado about Nothing? A Review” Transport Policy, Volume 17, Issue 1, January 2010, pp. 38-46

Anger, A “Including Aviation in the EU ETS: Impacts on the Industry, CO2 Emissions and Macroeconomic Activity in the EU”, Journal of Air Transport Management No. 16, 2010, pp. 100–105

Haynes, P, “Information and Communication Technology and International Business Travel: Mobility Allies?”, Mobilities, 5, 2010

Kelly, S. and M. Pollitt, “An Assessment of the Present and Future Opportunities for Combined Heat and Power with District Heating (CHP-DH) in the United Kingdom”, Energy Policy, 2010

A. de Nazelle, B. Morton, M. Jerrett and D, Crawford-Brown, “Short Trips: An Opportunity for Reducing Mobile-Source Emissions?”, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2010.

R. Raucher, S. Rubin, D. Crawford-Brown and M. Lawson, “Benefit-Cost Analysis for Drinking Water Standards: Efficiency, Equity, and Affordability Considerations in Small Communities”, Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2010.

Y. Li and D. Crawford-Brown, “Assessing the Co-Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Reduction: Health Benefits of Particulate Matter Related Inspection and Maintenance Programs in Bangkok, Thailand”, Science of the Total Environment, 2010.

Chen Q., C. Kang, Q. Xia, D. Guan “Primary Exploration on Low-Carbon Technology Roadmap of China's Power Sector”, Energy, 2010

Peters G., D. Guan, K. Hubacek, J. Minx and C. Webber, “Effects of China's Economic Growth”, Science, 2010

Feng, K., K. Hubacek, D. Guan, M. Contestabile, J. Minx and J. Barrett, “Distributional Effects of Climate Change Taxation: The case of the UK”, Environmental Science & Technology, 2010

Yu, Y., Hubacek, K. Feng and D. Guan, “Assessing Regional Water Footprints for the UK”, Ecological Economics, 2010

Wiedmann. T., R. Wood, J. Minx, M. Lenzen, D. Guan and R. Harris, “A Climate Footprint Time Series of the UK -- Results from a Multi-Region Input-Output Model”, Economic System Research, 2010.

Dagoumas, A and T. Barker, “Pathways to a Low-carbon Economy for the UK with the Macro-econometric E3MG Model’, Energy Policy, 38, 2010.

van Vuuren, D., M. Isaac, Z. Kundzewicz, N. Arnell, T. Barker, P. Criqui, F. Berkhout, H. Hilderink, J. Hinkel, A. Hof, A. Kitous, T. Kram, R. Mechler and S. Scrieciu, “The Use of Scenarios as the Basis for Combined Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation”, Global Environmental Change, 2010.

Lindner, S., Peterson S. Windhorst. W., “An Economic and Environmental Assessment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Power Plants -- A Case Study for the City of Kiel”, Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2010.



Barker, T. and Scrieciu S., "Unilateral Climate Change Mitigation, Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness: An Application to the European Union", International Journal of Global Warming, 1(4): 405-417, 2009.

Barker, T., Ekins, P., Junankar, S., Pollitt, H. and Summerton, P., "The Competitiveness Effects of European Environmental Fiscal Reforms", European Review of Energy Markets, 3(1), 2009.

Barker, T., Dagoumas, A. and Rubin, J., "The Macroeconomic Rebound Effect and the World Economy". Energy Efficiency, 2(4): 411-427, 2009.

Barker, T., "Endogenous Money in 21 Century Keynesian Economics", in Arestis, P and Sawyer, M. (eds) 21st Century Keynesian Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, 2009. 

Barker, T., Junankar, S., Pollitt, H. and Summerton, P., "The Effects of Environmental Tax Reform on International Competitiveness in the European Union: Modelling with E3ME", in Andersen, M. S. and Ekins, P. (eds) Carbon-Energy Taxation: Lessons from Europe, Oxford University Press, 2009.

Barker, T., Junankar, S., Pollitt, H. and Summerton, P., "Carbon Leakage from Unilateral Environmental Tax Reforms in Europe, 1995-2005", in Andersen, M. S. and Ekins, P. (eds) Carbon-Energy Taxation: Lessons from Europe, Oxford University Press, 2009.

Barker, T., "Will the Reconstruction of the Global Economy be Positive for Mitigating Climate Change?", in Giddens, A., Latham, S. and Liddle, R. (eds) Building a low carbon future: the politics of climate change, 2009. 

Barker, T., Junankar, S., Pollitt, H. and Summerton, P., "The Macroeconomic Effects of Unilateral Environmental Tax Reforms in Europe, 1995-2012", in Innovation, Technology and Employment: Impacts of Environmental Fiscal Reforms and Other Market-Based Instruments, edited volume “Critical Issues in Environmental Taxation VOL VI”, Oxford University Press, 2009.

Barker, T. and Dagoumas, A., "A Framework for Transport: Towards Decarbonising Transport", Green Alliance pamphlet on “Is there more to life than trading?”, 2009.

Dessens, O., Barker, T., Rogers, H., Anger, A., Jones, R. and Pyle, J., "Effects of Climate Control on Air Pollution: Coupling an Energy-Environment-Economy Global Model (E3MG) and Atmospheric Chemistry Model (p-TOMCAT) in Decarbonising International Transport", IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 6, 2009.

Feng K., K. Hubacek and D. Guan, "Lifestyles, Technology and CO2 emissions in China: a Regional Comparative Analysis", Ecological Economics, 69 145-154, 2009.

Guan D. and D. M. Reiner, "Emissions Affected by Trade Among Developing Countries", Nature, 462, 159, 2009.

Guan D., G. Peters, C. Weber, and K. Hubacek, "Journey to World Top Emitter – an Analysis of the Driving Forces of China’s Recent Emissions Surge", Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, 2009.

Hubacek K., D. Guan, J. Barrett and T. Wiedmann, "Environmental Implications of Urbanisation and Lifestyle Change in China: Ecological and Water Footprints", Journal of Cleaner Production, 17(14) 1241-1248, 2009

Huang, Y., "The Political Economy of Financial Reform: Are Abiad and Mody Right?", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24(7), 2009.

Huang, Y., "Dynamic Panel Data Evidence on the Finance-Investment Link", Journal of Statistics: Advanced Theory and Applications, 2(2), 2009. 

Minx. J., T. Wiedmann, R. Wood, G. Peter, M. Lenzen, A. Owen, K. Scott, J. Barrett, K. Hubacek, G. Baiocchi, A. Paul, E. Dawkins, J. Briggs, D. Guan, S. Suh and F. Ackermann, "Multi-regional Input-output Analysis and Carbon Footprinting: An Overview of UK Applications", Economic System Research, 21(3), 187-216, 2009.
Pollitt, H. and Barker, T., "Modelling the Financial Crisis with the Global E3MG Model", IUP Journal of Applied Economics, Volume-VIII, Issue Nos 5 & 6, Sep-Nov 2009, pp5-31., 2009.
West, L. J. and Hankin, R. K. S., "Exact Tests for Two-way Contingency Tables with Structural Zeros", Journal of Statistical Software, 28(11): 1-19, 2009.
Barker, T., Dagoumas, A. and Rubin, J., "The Macroeconomic Rebound Effect and the World Economy", Energy Efficiency, 411-427, 2009.
Barker, T., Ekins, P., Junankar, S., Pollitt, H. and Summerton, P., "The Competitiveness Effects of European Environmental Fiscal Reforms", European Review of Energy Markets, 3(1), 2009.
Barker, T. and Scrieciu, S.Ş., "Unilateral Climate Change Mitigation, Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness: An Application to the European Union", International Journal of Global Warming, 1(4): 405–417, 2009.
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A key area of research at 4CMR over the past 5 years has been the development of the Future Technology Transformation model, used in exploring how policies influence global technology and carbon. This includes an on-line visualisation tool so you can view our results.

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4CMR works closely with the Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance, with overlapping interests, skills and projects. C-EENRG is also located in the Department of Land Economy, with a core mission to "conduct integrative research on the governance of environmental transitions, understood as social and technological processes driven by environmental constraints that lead to fundamental changes in social organisation."

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