This EPSRC-funded project is directed through the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, and is led overall by Professor Jim Hall at Oxford University, and within 4CMR by Doug Crawford-Brown (project team at 4CMR is Mark Syddall and Doug Crawford-Brown).
In recognition of the significance of climate change in urban areas, from the points of view of both adaptation and mitigation, in 2005 the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research launched a new research programme on “Engineering Urban Systems”. Building on the previous success of the Tyndall Centre in interdisciplinary integrated assessment, the Tyndall Centre Cities Programme brought together research expertise from seven universities and a high profile stakeholder group to develop an Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) that simulates the effects of long term changes in urban areas and can be used as a platform for testing the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation strategies.
In a little over two years the Tyndall Cities Programme has delivered a functioning assessment model (UIAF) that combines socio-economic and climate scenarios with regional economic modelling, simulation of land use change and spatially explicit assessment of climate impacts, as well as analysis of the effectiveness of various strategies for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. The contribution of 4CMR is through development of an input-output model (ARCADIA-ARIO) to determine the multiplier effect of initial damage in the London economy, identifying strategies of investment to reduce this effect through reducing the vulnerability of the local economy to flooding, droughts, storms, etc.
Following on from the completion of the Tyndall Centre research in March 2009, the ARCADIA project launched an ambitious new phase of development of the UIAF in order to better understand the vulnerability of urban areas and provide the evidence necessary to design the transition to a more resilient future. The foundation of the current work is shown in the figure below:
The figure shows the steps underlying the ARCADIA assessment of the vulnerability of London's economy to extreme climate events. A climate model and weather generator produce estimates of the probability and severity of these climate events into the future as climate change advances. Initial damage functions are being developed at Oxford University, describing the impacts on such features of the built environment and economy as Transport, Production and Demand. These changes are then simulated within an Adaptive Regional Input-Output (ARIO) model of London's economy developed at 4CMR to assess indirect effects, with that economy changing in the future as a greener economy replaces the current one. It is based on modification to the ARIO model developed initially by Stephane Hallegatte (An Adaptive Regional Input-Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina). These indirect effects are reduced over time after an event as transport, production capacity and demand all return to initial conditions through the process of rebuilding.
From these analyses, we are creating the capacity to assess the vulnerability of each sector of the economy, and of the overall economy, to extreme climate events. This allows us to quantify the indirect economics impacts of climate events, identify where the economy is most vulnerable to such events, and assess specific adaptation measures that can be taken to reduce that vulnerability both by reducing the initial damage functions (e.g. through flood barriers) and by ensuring limited labour and capital after an event is directed towards the points where they can have the greatest impact on rebuilding the economy. This capacity places adaptation investments and resource decisions onto a sound cost-risk-benefit footing so the cumulative impact on the economy is reduced.
From these analyses, we are creating the capacity to assess the vulnerability of each sector of the economy, and of the overall economy, to extreme climate events. This allows us to quantify the indirect economics impacts of climate events, identify where the economy is most vulnerable to such events, and assess specific adaptation measures that can be taken to reduce that vulnerability both by reducing the initial damage functions (e.g. through flood barriers) and by ensuring limited labour and capital after an event is directed towards the points where they can have the greatest impact on rebuilding the economy. This capacity places adaptation investments and resource decisions onto a sound cost-risk-benefit footing so the cumulative impact on the economy is reduced.
